I don’t know if i should feel strange for leaving israel just as the missiles start heading my way. I left to Dusseldorf for studies; I’m going to be here for the next two weeks and i don’t know what will be of Israel till i get back. We started betting when will missiles hit Tel-Aviv. My assumption is that on that day, the war will be over. It’s not that it shouldn’t be over by then, but that day – the day that Tel Aviv will get the missile, is the day where the Israeli Government and Army will decide to end it. They’ll launch a sudden “Surprise Planned Activity†and just afterwards declare that they wish for a ceasefire.
My guess, and i might be wrong, Is that the Hizbullah doesn’t want a ceasefire before they can show a good victory, and in the current Situation, hitting Hadera is not enough. Israel also needs to show it won this fight, so there is going to be some arguing about that. I guess that’s the reason that no one is ready for a ceasefire in the meantime.
In the meantime, 5,000 people attended yesterday’s anti-war rally. Too bad it wasn’t a rally for peace, I gave this state my ultimatum, i guess that the two weeks that passed showed me that this won’t end soon. When i’ll get back to israel i’ll start doing things for it. In the meantime, i don’t know, i hope that everything will be over by then; too much time and too many people killed in the meanwhile. Why is it?
The question is, what will be in the day after the ceasefire? Will Israel be safe? Will lebanon be safe? I’m not quite sure.
My bet is that the missiles will hit Tel Aviv a few minutes before the ceasefire will become effective. In “Grapes of Wrath”, Hizbullah fired a large amount of rockets to Israel, 2 minutes before the ceasefire became effective. They had “to say the last word”, or “win”.
I attended the rally. It was exactly the same as 2 weeks ago, organized and dominated by the “usual suspects”.
Enjoy the European atmosphere in Dusseldorf!
So it was the same? no new people? do you think that next week it will reach 10k?
Same same. I caught Stalin on camera…
Next Saturday is August 12th, exactly one month since the war began.
I doubt that the public opinion will seriously change by then, but more serious publications could bring more people, so 10k is quite possible.
I understand that you’ll still be abroad in the next Saturday. I don’t see a ceasefire soon, so you can attend the next one…
don’t worry, sweetie, tel aviv will not fold easily from a zilzal as all those Iraqi Sqads didn’t change her. what i love about this city is that it’s a bubble of normality. a day after a terror attack people will go out in the same block. right now it prospers more than ever when all the refuges of the north shop and go out here in search for normality. tel aviv contributes in its own way with its own gifts. i was happy to discover your blog and I’m inviting you to ours. i tried to attend the anti war demonstration yesterday but i was a bit scared of the extreme left turn it took. see my post/video about it.
jonathan, enjoy (as much as you can under the circumstances) your time in Dusseldorf. Your points seem like a general accepted version of events as you’re apparently seeing (or see it coming) a ‘history repeats itself’ kind of scenario. It is funny that you and Yohay mentioned the ‘usual suspects’ to be at the peace rally. Is it a feature of only people on the different places on the left who seek peace and are more willing to compromise or get their ego out of their communal tootsies?? Hmm.. for that matter, has their ever been a peace rally where people from all walks of the political spectrum walked together in Israel or anywhere else for that matter? Food for thought..safe travels!
Ingrid
Ingrid,
Several demonstrations i remember had more than the ‘Usual Suspects’, the last one being May 15th, 2004, if i recall correctly. Back then i coordinated the operations in the Meretz Young faction and set up the demonstration from early morning. the demonstration had a tad over 150,000 people, but besides that, i don’t think we had another “big” demonstration. but it’s not only us, also the right has the same 1,500 – 3,000 activists, and besides the last wave which was during the disengagement, it was quite rare to see others.
Israel can be quite easily occupied by activists, if you have 2,000 you can win the elections.
I don’t understand this – how can you possibly imagine that a ceasefire will bring peace?? As Einstein said, the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over and expecting different results.
This terrible war is a direct result of Israel’s land concessions and weakness in the face of a deadly enemy. Throughout human history there have been evil people whose raison d’etre is the destruction of others. This is no different – except that Islamic fundamentalism is willing to destroy itself and murder its own children in the process.
For the only road to peace, check out what the Lubavitcher Rebbe has to say:
http://www.thetruthaboutisrael.org
Shifra,
Ceasefire will not bring peace, it has to come with negotiations for peace.
I think that you are showing here irrational thinking and ignoring the grey areas of life.